Data Sources
Primary Data Sources
FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)
Primary source for core economic indicators:
- Treasury Yield Curve rates (10Y-2Y spread)
- GDP growth rates
- Unemployment rates
- CPI (Consumer Price Index) data
Alpha Vantage API
Real-time market data for:
- S&P 500 Index
- NASDAQ Composite Index
Recession Risk Model
Our recession risk calculation model is based on extensive research and combines multiple weighted factors:
- Yield Curve (25%): Based on Federal Reserve research on yield curve inversion as a recession predictor
- GDP Growth (20%): Direct measure of economic output
- Unemployment (15%): Labor market health indicator
- Inflation/CPI (15%): Price stability measure
- Bank Predictions (15%): Aggregated forecasts from major financial institutions
- Market Indices (10%): Stock market performance indicators
Financial Institution Forecasts
Monthly recession probability forecasts are aggregated from:
- JPMorgan Chase
- Goldman Sachs
- American Bankers Association
Data Update Frequency
• Market Indices: Real-time during market hours
• Treasury Yield Data: Daily
• CPI and Unemployment: Monthly
• GDP Growth: Quarterly
• Bank Predictions: Monthly or on significant changes